individual waves out to sea or at the beach can be higher than this number. If you are close to the

We recently published a new Adverse Weather and Health Plan as part of our commitment under the second National Adaption Programme for the UK to bring together and improve existing guidance on weather and health. period (more than 10 seconds) means the waves at the beach may be more powerful. Lifeguards can give you This means that even though average temperatures are expected to increase, cold will remain a significant public health problem in the years to come. Protecting communities and public services from adverse weather It’s really important to reinforce that the harm to health associated with adverse weather is not inevitable. There are things we can do all year round, and during periods of adverse weather, to minimise the impact.

Both cold weather and flooding are linked to respiratory disease from mould and damp. What’s the impact of our changing climate? Beware of offshore winds if you are using inflatables, paddle boards or kayaks. These winds can blow you Humidity is the amount of water vapor in the air. If there is a lot of water vapour, the humidity will be Chance of precipitation represents how likely it is that rain (or other types of precipitation, such as

This increase was found to differ across the UK. When looking regionally, future changes in extreme rainfall events could be almost 10 times more frequent in Northwest Scotland in 2080 compared to the 1980s, whilst in the south of the UK the value is closer to three times more frequent. As the atmosphere warms it can hold more moisture, at a rate of 7% more moisture for every degree of warming. On a simple level, this explains why in many regions of the world projections show an increase in precipitation as a consequence of human induced climate change. Although there is a long term increase in the number of extreme rainfall events in the UK as we go through the century, as shown by the white line in the graph above, in any individual realisation (or ensemble member, as shown by the red line) the number of events per year remains erratic much like the observational record. As our climate warms, it is notable quite how variable the number of events becomes year to year. Our guidance also includes advice that the public can act on to stay safe and as always, our most important call to action during adverse weather is to look out for people who might struggle to cope, particularly older people, young children and people with long term health conditions. Looking forward Professor Kendon added: “This is the first time that such a high resolution data set has spanned over a century. As well as being a valuable asset for planners and policy makers to prepare for the future, it can also be used by climate attribution scientists to examine current extreme rainfall events to see how much more likely they will have been because of human greenhouse gas emissions.Our study highlights the complexity of how natural climate variability and human-induced climate change will come together in the extreme rainfall events we experience over the UK – it is far from a simple picture of more extreme events decade by decade as a steadily increasing trend.” beach will be from these waves. If the arrow points towards land, most of the waves’ power will reach The effects of climate change on cold-related illness and deaths could have some benefits, but projections suggest that the total number of cold-related deaths each year is unlikely to decline significantly due to issues like poor housing and fuel poverty. Temperatures above 25ºC are associated with excess heat-related deaths, with higher temperatures associated with even greater numbers of excess deaths. The risks are greatest for people with certain conditions: And whilst the immediate and direct impacts of very hot or cold weather and flooding are perhaps the most obvious, we should not forget the longer term or indirect impacts.

This is the average height of the waves, 1-2 miles out to sea. The height of the waves can vary. The No risk of UV - It’s safe to stay outside. 1-2 Low - You can safely stay outside. Consider sunscreen in direct sunlight. 3-5 Moderate - Take care during midday hours and do not spend too much time in the sun unprotected. Sunscreen advised. 6-7 High - Seek shade during midday hours, cover up and wear sunscreen. 8-10 Very high - Spend time in the shade between 11am and 3pm. Shirt, sunscreen and hat are essential. 11 Extreme - Avoid being outside during midday hours. Shirt, sunscreen and hat essential. Adverse weather matters for our health: there is a strong evidence base showing us that periods of very hot or cold weather or flooding present a wide range of direct and indirect health risks.

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Last year in Lincolnshire the temperature reached 40.3C exceeding the previous UK record by 1.6C, and the hot period in July saw the Met Office issue its first ever red warning for extreme heat.

This is like starting 12 weather forecasts and running them for 100 years, except the researchers are not interested in the weather on a given day but rather how the occurrence of local weather extremes varies year-by-year. By starting the model runs in the past it is also possible to verify the output against observations to assess the model performance. Professor Kendon explains: “The observed rainfall record in the UK is fairly erratic with a large amount of variability, these latest projections show that this is likely to continue through the century. What we can see from the higher resolution output is an even more erratic frequency of extreme events each year, so this could mean we see clusters of record breaking intense rainfall events, followed by a period when no records are broken. Despite the underlying trend, these pauses in the intensification of local rainfall extremes can last a surprisingly long time – even multiple decades. Northern Ireland and parts of Scotland could reach as low as -3C (26.6F). The south of England and Wales could see about two inches of rain on Thursday and Friday, and the Met Office is warning of possible thunderstorms, flooding and travel delays.Deputy Chief Meteorologist, Steven Keates, said: “Many parts of the UK will see a very unsettled spell of weather through the second half of the coming week, into next weekend. A number of areas have the potential to see a lot of rain as well as strong winds at times. Of particular concern at the moment is eastern and central Scotland where some exceptional rainfall totals could build up, falling on ground already saturated after recent heavy rainfall. This could lead to some significant and widespread disruption. At this level of detail, it is possible to more accurately assess how convective downpours that can lead to flash flooding will change, for example when the intensity of the rain exceeds 20mm/hour. Thresholds of rainfall intensity like 20mm/hr are used for aspects of planning such as surface water drainage and flood risk.